Congressional representation is reapportioned every decade following the completion of the decennial census. The Census Bureau's most recent Population and Housing Unit Estimates were released December 19, 2024.

A weighted average growth rate is applied to the July 1, 2024, estimates of the resident population of the United States from the Census Bureau to produce a forecast for the 2030 apportionment.

The following seats are the last six seats apportioned and the first four left out. These 6 seats are "On the Bubble". Small changes in population will determine which of these seats end up part of the 123rd - 127th congresses.

Safest 3 In

Seat 430: TX-42

Seat 431: FL-32

Seat 432: IL-16

Last 3 In

Seat 433: MI-13

Seat 434: AL-07

Seat 435: CA-49

First 3 Out

Seat 436: NC-15

Seat 437: NY-25

Seat 438: GA-15

Next 3 Out

Seat 439: WI-08

Seat 440: TX-43

Seat 441: TN-10

National Growth

The United States grew by 3,289,831 people according to the 2024 estimates. As reported by the Associated Press, the Census Bureau modified its methodology this year to include individuals in the United States as humanitarian parolees (i.e. refugees). If these individuals continue to reside in the United States on Census Day 2030 they would be counted as residents for the purpose of apportionment. Inclusion of these persons in the annual estimates does help to better calibrate the apportionment forecasts for the next decade.

Domestic Migration

23 states lost population via domestic migration. The five states with the largest declines were:

California: -239,575

New York: -120,917

Illinois: -56,235

New Jersey: -35,554

Massachusetts: -27,480

27 states gained population via domestic migration. The top 5 growth states are:

Texas: +85,267

North Carolina: +82,288

South Carolina: +68,043

Florida: +64,017

Tennessee: +48,476

International Migration

July 2023 to July 2024 saw the highest rate of international migration this decade.

2023-2024: 8.23%

2022-2023: 6.84%

2021-2022: 5.08%

2020-2021: 1.13%

Every state experienced population growth via international migration. The top 5 and bottom 5 states are:

1) Florida: +411,322

2) California: +361,057

3) Texas: +319,569

4) New York: +207,161

5) New Jersey: +130,692

...

46) West Virginia: +2,841

47) Vermont: +2,024

48) South Dakota: +1,616

49) Wyoming: +1,285

50) Montana: +506

Florida, Texas, and Utah Lead the Nation

Florida grew by 2.0% from July 2023 to July 2024 - gaining 467,347 residents.

Texas and Utah followed. Both saw 1.8% growth rates. Texas added 562,941 residents while Utah added 60,391.

Nine States Gained More Than 100,000 Residents from July 2023 to July 2024

Texas: +562,941 (+1.8%)

Florida: +467,347 (+2.0%)

California: +232,570 (+0.6%)

North Carolina: +164,835 (+1.5%)

New York: +129,881 (+0.7%)

New Jersey: +121,209 (1.3%)

Georgia: +116,446 (+1.1%)

Arizona: +109,357 (+1.5%)

Washington: +100,860 (+1.3%)

Three States Lost Population from July 2023 to July 2024

Mississippi: -127 (-0.0004%)

Vermont: -215 (-0.03%)

West Virginia: -516 (-0.03%)

Two states gained more than 1 million residents since 2020:

Texas: +2,141,373 (+7.3%)

Florida: +1,834,023 (+8.5%)

Five more states gained more than 300,000 residents since 2020:

North Carolina: +604,525 (+5.8%)

Georgia: +467,123 (+4.4%)

Arizona: +424,274 (+5.9%)

South Carolina: +360,579 (+7.0%)

Tennessee: +315,403 (+4.6%)

Seven states lost population since 2020:

New York: -336,524 (-1.7%)

California: -124,411 (-0.3%)

Illinois: -111,656 (-0.9%)

Louisiana: -60,134 (-1.3%)

West Virginia: -23,757 (-1.3%)