Congressional representation is reapportioned every decade following the completion of the decennial census. The Census Bureau's most recent Population and Housing Unit Estimates were released January 27, 2026. The estimates were delayed due to the 2025 federal government shutdown.

A three-year weighted average growth rate is applied to the July 1, 2025, estimates of the resident population of the United States from the Census Bureau to produce a forecast for the 2030 apportionment.

The following seats are the last six seats apportioned and the first four left out. These 6 seats are "On the Bubble". Small changes in population will determine which of these seats end up part of the 123rd - 127th congresses.

Safest 3 In

Seat 430: IL-16

Seat 431: AL-07

Seat 432: NC-15

Last 3 In

Seat 433: MI-13

Seat 434: TX-42

Seat 435: GA-15

First 3 Out

Seat 436: CA-49

Seat 437: FL-31

Seat 438: WI-08

Next 3 Out

Seat 439: TN-10

Seat 440: RI-02

Seat 441: MN-08

Florida, Texas, and North Carolina Lead the Nation

Florida grew by 1.2% from July 2024 to July 2025 - gaining 391,243 residents.

Florida grew by 196,680 residents (0.8%) and North Carolina's population increased by 145,907 (1.3%).

Nine States Gained More Than 60,000 Residents from July 2024 to July 2025

Texas: +391,243 (+1.2%)

Florida: +196,680 (+0.8%)

North Carolina: +145,907 (+1.3%)

Georgia: +98,540 (+0.9%)

South Carolina: +79,958 (1.5%)

Washington: +73,062 (+0.9%)

Arizona: +67,394 (+0.9%)

Tennessee: +63,785 (+0.9%)

Virginia: +60,465 (+0.7%)

Five States Lost Population from July 2024 to July 2025

West Virginia: -1,255 (-0.1%)

New Mexico: -1,276 (-0.1%)

Vermont: -1,858 (-0.3%)

Hawaii: -2,132 (-0.1%)

California: -9,465 (-0.02%)

National Growth

The United States grew by 1,781,060 people according to the 2025 estimates.

Domestic Migration

19 states lost population via domestic migration. The five states with the largest declines were:

California: -229,077

New York: -137,586

Illinois: -40,017

New Jersey: -37,428

Massachusetts: -33,340

31 states gained population via domestic migration. The top 5 growth states are:

North Carolina: +84,064

Texas: +67,299

South Carolina: +66,622

Tennessee: +42,389

Arizona: +31,107

International Migration

Every state experienced population growth via international migration. The top 5 and bottom 5 states are:

1) Florida: +178,674

2) Texas: +167,475

3) California: +109,278

4) New York: +95,634

5) New Jersey: +53,064

...

46) Alaska: +1,959

47) Montana: +899

48) Vermont: +623

49) Wyoming: +258

50) West Virginia: +244